Tools & Techniques

This approach treats humans as the “instrument” and the estimates as a “measurement” that needs calibration.

A method from the book "Noise", designed by Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony, "with noise mitigation as a primary objective".

Evaluating systematic variations in human judgement

First understand what is shaping the system, then nudge with changes that require minimal energy.

Visual tool for strategic business decision-making based on value chain evolution and market maturity.

Vision statements influence strategy processes. Done correctly, they tap intrinsic motivation, while poorly crafted visions can lead to organizational skepticism.

Simple, inclusive facilitation techniques that distribute control and foster active participation in groups enhancing collaboration, creativity, and engagement.

Systematically identifying and testing underlying assumptions through targeted experiments

A sensemaking framework that aids decision making by identifying environmental domains and understanding their dynamics

Modeling dynamic relationships and feedback loops in systems, enhancing understanding and decision-making in complex organizational environments.

Complex systems benefit from "Simple Rules" to guide decisions, emphasizing flexibility, simplicity, and decentralized authority

Manage future risks by discussing possible outcomes, focusing on external factors, identifying key uncertainties, and challenging biases.

Intentionally crafting the words and tone used in conversations to promote effective dialog, not gridlocked disagreements

A divergent thinking tool to help overcome anchoring bias and identify different options by eliminating the existing options

Evaluating decisions as "bets" against future uncertainties and measuring good/bad decisions based on process - distinguishing between skill and luck.

A systematic mathematical optimization method used for decision making to determine an 'optimal solution', particularly in resource allocation, cost minimization, and system design

Leaders delegate decision making by creating boundaries of authority. Decision rights enables the speed and effectiveness of decentralized decision making.

Causal Decision Diagrams help decision-makers visually capture the causal relationships between desired goals, the different choices of levers to pull, and any intermediate results that connect them.

aka Wargaming - using simulated conflicts to test strategies, assess risks, and explore outcomes to aid in scenario planning

Categorizes information into known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns, helping navigate uncertainty and uncover risks

pre-set signals or checkpoints that trigger decisions, reviews, or actions when specific conditions are met, serving as early warning systems

Introducing randomness is a technique that helps remove our self-limiting tendencies and explore potentially counter-intuitive paths.

A model designed by John Boyd, a fighter pilot, that involves observing, orienting, deciding, and acting, with the goal of gaining a competitive advantage in uncertain or rapidly changing environments

BAIN & Company's decision making framework for clarifying roles and responsibilities

Even Over statements provide guidance on how to choose between two "good" options when making decisions and simplify trade-offs

Evidence-based decision making designed to help an organization make better decisions through a process of hypothesis testing and experimentation.

Evaluate potential risks and possibilities of negative outcomes by evaluating a decision from the perspective

Generate and revise probabilistic forecasts across a group of experts or leverage the 'wisdom of crowds' in a systematic way

Distinguishing between decision types help teams and organizations identify the level of risk and potential consequences associated with different options

Nominal group collaboration is a method of group decision making that involves structured, anonymous input from all members to generate a representative group viewpoint

Effectively prioritize and delegate decisions to keep the most important, urgent decisions front and center

Map the potential outcomes of a decision to visualize counterfactuals and surface potential risks

Effectively frame a decision in a clear, concise, and objective way to set up the process for productive dialog

The DACI framework is a simple, yet effective way to quickly identify roles and responsibilities in a decision making process.

The speed test is a tool for understanding when to go fast with a decision and when to go slow

A decision matrix is a tool that is used to evaluate the potential options or choices in a decision making process.

Belief challenging is a tool for challenging existing, often implicit, beliefs and arrive at better pivot/persevere decisions when evaluating existing product investments (projects, features, etc…)