Bets

When a change initiative is shrouded in uncertainty, a hypothesis can be created to support communication. The hypothesis is still just a proposal. While it sketches out the way forward, it needs a spark to launch execution. A hypothesis is activated by making a bet. The bet constrains and commits a finite amount of resources to investigating the hypothesis (usually just a subset of the overall initiative funding). The bet authorizes the definition of work, by the execution teams, and the creation of short-term plans. It sets expectations on the amount of work to create, and how quickly feedback should be available (to help evaluate the hypothesis).

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Example Syntax:

“We will invest <amount of headcount-over-number-of-months, or $> to pursue <sub-goal> because we like the odds of getting meaningful feedback on <this hypothesis> by <this date>.”

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For more:

• "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts", Annie Duke (2018).